← Premier League 2016-17 · Tue, Jan 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 80% | 70% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 20% | 7.28 | value: +47% |
| Watford win | 7% | 9% | 14.20 | value: +34% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Younès Kaboul · Watford |
| 13' | ⚽ | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 21' | 🟨 | Gabriel Paulista · Arsenal |
| 25' | 🟨 | Nacho Monreal · Arsenal |
| 58' | ⚽ | Alex Iwobi · Arsenal |
| 66' | 🟨 | Sebastian Prödl · Watford |
| 86' | 🟨 | Alexis Sánchez · Arsenal |
| 88' | 🟨 | Stefano Okaka · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Cleverley · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 7428.00 | 214.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 3.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1775.42 | 1478.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.22 | -20.51 |
| eye test v1 | 1.50 | -0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 46.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.54 |
| league points | 47.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.60 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.05 | -1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.84 | 29.35 |
| state index | 1.49 | -0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 22.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |