← Premier League 2016-17 · Wed, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 76% | 72% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 22% | 6.70 | value: +45% |
| Watford win | 9% | 6% | 11.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Sebastian Prödl · Watford |
| 33' | ⚽ | Pablo Zabaleta · Man City |
| 73' | 🟨 | Étienne Capoue · Watford |
| 75' | 🟨 | Pablo Zabaleta · Man City |
| 86' | ⚽ | David Silva · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 166.00 | 166.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1722.55 | 1513.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.38 | -7.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| league points | 30.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.03 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.55 | 30.54 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.15 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 237.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |