← Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026 · regular season · Sun, Aug 16, 09:30 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| CR Flamengo win | 49% | 1.98 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
| Mirassol FC win | 24% | 4.20 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.75 |
| Over | 45% | 2.15 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| No | 51% | 1.82 |
| Yes | 49% | 1.95 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 2 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |