The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
SE Palmeiras win
47%
2.08
Draw
28%
3.45
EC Vitória win
24%
4.33
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under
55%
1.78
Over
45%
2.12
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
50%
1.91
No
50%
1.91
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 10.5
52%
1.83
Over 10.5
48%
2.00
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 5.5
54%
1.80
Over 5.5
46%
2.10
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
SE Palmeiras win
2.01
1.96
-2.5%
Draw
3.31
3.30
-0.3%
EC Vitória win
3.71
4.10
+10.5%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.