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Mirassol FC 2–1 Clube do Remo

← Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026 · regular season · Wed, Jul 29, 10:30 PM UTC · ref: L. Torezin

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mirassol FC win55%1.78
Draw26%3.80
Clube do Remo win19%5.50

across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.87
Over47%2.18

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
No52%1.91
Yes48%2.05

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 10.552%2.00
Over 10.548%2.05

across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 5.556%1.75
Over 5.544%2.20

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Clube do Remo win5.004.96-0.8%
Draw3.583.70+3.4%
Mirassol FC win1.701.700.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Timeline

17'🟨Igor Formiga · Mirassol FC
21'🟨Gabriel Knesowitsch · Mirassol FC
30'⚽ (og)Marllon · Mirassol FC
45'⚽Leonel Picco · Clube do Remo
54'⚽João Victor · Mirassol FC
72'🟨Zé Ivaldo · Clube do Remo
72'🟨Matheus Alexandre · Clube do Remo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMirassol FCClube do Remo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.500.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days515.00209.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio José Maria de Campos Maia
2.00
2.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.00-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.806.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.805.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.322.17
elo1489.011466.67
elo momentum (last 5)2.3012.66
eye test v1-0.58-0.73
eye trend v1-0.41-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)53.5060.90
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.10
keeper form v10.760.75
league points20.0021.00
league rank19.0017.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2077.80
possession avg (last 5)44.2042.40
rest days3.963.00
scorer concentration0.220.23
season ppg1.051.05
skill v1-0.47-0.77
solidity v10.75-0.94
sot against avg (last 5)3.206.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.40
squad age30.8230.42
state index0.13-0.01
sterile dominance v1-0.19-0.00
threat rate (last 10)0.240.26
threat rate (last 3)0.250.24
threat rate (last 5)0.250.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.101.56
xg for avg (last 5)0.690.67