The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
CR Flamengo win
47%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.60
SC Internacional win
25%
4.31
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under
51%
1.92
Over
49%
2.03
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
53%
1.78
No
47%
2.10
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 9.5
54%
1.77
Under 9.5
46%
2.02
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 5.5
55%
1.80
Over 5.5
45%
2.20
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
CR Flamengo win
2.05
1.90
-7.3%
Draw
3.32
3.45
+3.9%
SC Internacional win
3.59
4.00
+11.4%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.