The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Fluminense FC win
53%
1.85
Draw
26%
3.85
EC Bahia win
21%
4.75
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over
51%
1.95
Under
49%
2.02
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
53%
1.91
No
47%
2.10
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 9.5
54%
1.77
Under 9.5
46%
2.02
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 5.5
51%
1.91
Over 5.5
49%
2.04
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
EC Bahia win
4.28
4.45
+4.1%
Draw
3.62
3.65
+0.8%
Fluminense FC win
1.79
1.79
-0.3%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.