The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Cruzeiro EC win
42%
2.42
Coritiba FBC win
29%
3.40
Draw
29%
3.36
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under
55%
1.76
Over
45%
2.15
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
51%
1.91
No
49%
2.00
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 10.5
53%
1.79
Over 10.5
47%
2.02
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 5.5
55%
1.75
Over 5.5
45%
2.12
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Cruzeiro EC win
2.35
2.24
-4.9%
Draw
3.20
3.25
+1.6%
Coritiba FBC win
3.04
3.30
+8.6%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.