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SC Corinthians Paulista 0–0 CA Paranaense

← Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026 · regular season · Thu, Jul 30, 10:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Zanovelli

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Corinthians Paulista win49%1.98
Draw29%3.40
CA Paranaense win22%4.56

across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under61%1.59
Over39%2.55

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
No56%1.70
Yes44%2.20

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 9.551%1.95
Over 9.549%2.00

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 5.551%2.07
Over 5.549%2.00

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
CA Paranaense win4.284.33+1.3%
Draw3.253.20-1.5%
SC Corinthians Paulista win1.911.93+1.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Timeline

44'🟨Gastón Benavídez · CA Paranaense
45'🟨Jádson · CA Paranaense
86'🟨André Ramalho · SC Corinthians Paulista
87'🟨Matheuzinho · SC Corinthians Paulista
90'🟨Rodrigo Garro · SC Corinthians Paulista
90'🟨Santos · CA Paranaense

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSC Corinthians PaulistaCA Paranaense
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.490.74
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days120.00120.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueNeo Quimica Arena
2.00
2.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.200.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.006.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.902.63
elo1533.711552.66
elo momentum (last 5)19.5139.04
eye test v10.320.50
eye trend v10.33-0.51
first sub minute (last 10)65.4043.90
form points (last 5)10.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.081.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
keeper form v10.660.73
league points28.0036.00
league rank9.003.00
matches since blank3.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.6081.40
possession avg (last 5)58.0043.60
rest days4.155.04
scorer concentration0.140.40
season ppg1.401.80
skill v10.650.23
solidity v11.081.22
sot against avg (last 5)2.402.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.805.10
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.60
squad age28.2030.26
state index0.490.56
sterile dominance v10.91-0.92
threat rate (last 10)0.250.30
threat rate (last 3)0.270.31
threat rate (last 5)0.230.34
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.010.88
xg for avg (last 5)0.961.79