Chapecoense AF v CR Vasco da Gama

← Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026 · regular season · Sat, Nov 14, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
CR Vasco da Gama win	40%	2.45
Chapecoense AF win	31%	3.17
Draw	29%	3.40

across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Under	54%	1.90
Over	46%	2.13

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Yes	52%	1.91
No	48%	2.10

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over 9.5	54%	1.70
Under 9.5	46%	2.02

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Everything else we hold on this match · 2 more recorded facts — tap to expand

duration	REGULAR
stage	REGULAR_SEASON