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CR Vasco da Gama 1–1 Mirassol FC

← Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026 · regular season · Sat, Jul 25, 11:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Klein

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CR Vasco da Gama win46%2.10
Draw28%3.46
Mirassol FC win25%4.38

across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.80
Over46%2.25

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes51%2.00
No49%2.00

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 9.553%1.87
Under 9.547%2.05

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 4.551%2.04
Under 4.549%2.10

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Mirassol FC win4.203.64-13.3%
Draw3.303.35+1.5%
CR Vasco da Gama win1.912.06+7.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Timeline

30'⚽Igor Formiga · Mirassol FC
66'🟨Walter · Mirassol FC
80'⚽Andrés Gómez · CR Vasco da Gama
83'🟨Nuno Moreira · CR Vasco da Gama

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCR Vasco da GamaMirassol FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.33
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.05
box share (last 5)0.550.48
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days205.00511.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio São Januário
1.00
1.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.803.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.702.46
elo1453.041488.30
elo momentum (last 5)-44.4613.57
eye test v10.41-0.43
eye trend v10.04-0.71
first sub minute (last 10)59.2055.90
form points (last 5)3.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.50
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.35
keeper form v10.700.74
league points20.0019.00
league rank17.0018.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.003.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.8079.60
possession avg (last 5)56.4045.60
rest days9.048.02
scorer concentration0.190.18
season ppg1.051.06
skill v10.69-0.36
solidity v1-0.421.17
sot against avg (last 5)5.802.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.204.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.672.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.60
squad age26.6230.08
state index-0.900.00
sterile dominance v10.34-0.10
threat rate (last 10)0.310.25
threat rate (last 3)0.300.21
threat rate (last 5)0.290.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.210.81
xg for avg (last 5)1.200.90