The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Clube do Remo win
43%
2.26
EC Vitória win
29%
3.55
Draw
28%
3.50
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under
53%
1.83
Over
47%
2.12
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
52%
1.91
No
48%
2.05
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 10.5
54%
1.81
Over 10.5
46%
2.05
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 4.5
56%
1.68
Under 4.5
44%
2.20
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
EC Vitória win
3.30
3.30
0.0%
Draw
3.30
3.40
+3.0%
Clube do Remo win
2.17
2.16
-0.5%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.