The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
SE Palmeiras win
57%
1.70
Draw
26%
3.95
CA Mineiro win
17%
6.28
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under
53%
1.87
Over
47%
2.14
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
No
53%
1.85
Yes
47%
2.06
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 9.5
53%
1.80
Under 9.5
47%
2.05
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 5.5
53%
1.83
Over 5.5
47%
2.07
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
CA Mineiro win
6.05
5.50
-9.1%
Draw
3.80
3.68
-3.2%
SE Palmeiras win
1.57
1.65
+5.1%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.