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Grêmio FBPA 1–1 Fluminense FC

← Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026 · regular season · Sun, Jul 26, 09:30 PM UTC · ref: E. Batista

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Grêmio FBPA win36%2.75
Fluminense FC win36%2.75
Draw29%3.40

across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.92
Over49%2.15

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes55%1.85
No45%2.12

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 9.553%1.81
Over 9.547%2.05

across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 5.554%1.88
Under 5.546%2.10

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Fluminense FC win2.622.620.0%
Draw3.303.300.0%
Grêmio FBPA win2.632.70+2.7%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Timeline

12'🟨Hércules · Fluminense FC
13'🟨Guga · Fluminense FC
65'⚽ (pen)Hulk · Fluminense FC
69'🟨Thiago Silva · Fluminense FC
76'🟨Carlos Vinícius · Grêmio FBPA
79'🟨Agustín Canobbio · Fluminense FC
89'⚽— · Grêmio FBPA
90'🟨Juan Nardoni · Grêmio FBPA

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGrêmio FBPAFluminense FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.30
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.15
box share (last 5)0.620.68
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days206.00237.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueArena do Grêmio
1.00
1.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.202.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.003.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.805.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.662.86
elo1471.181526.66
elo momentum (last 5)-24.019.30
eye test v1-0.620.15
eye trend v10.600.35
first sub minute (last 10)44.5056.20
form points (last 5)4.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.50
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.40
keeper form v10.770.72
league points21.0032.00
league rank16.004.00
matches since blank4.003.00
matches since clean sheet5.0014.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.0088.00
possession avg (last 5)43.6060.80
rest days8.948.94
scorer concentration0.470.32
season ppg1.111.68
skill v1-0.331.06
solidity v1-0.940.97
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.703.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.20
squad age28.8530.39
state index-0.43-0.02
sterile dominance v10.371.00
threat rate (last 10)0.200.21
threat rate (last 3)0.220.25
threat rate (last 5)0.180.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.810.72
xg for avg (last 5)0.861.26