The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
CR Flamengo win
64%
1.53
Draw
22%
4.50
São Paulo FC win
14%
8.00
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over
50%
1.93
Under
50%
1.95
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
No
54%
1.80
Yes
46%
2.07
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 10.5
54%
1.83
Over 10.5
46%
2.05
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 4.5
54%
1.80
Under 4.5
46%
2.04
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
São Paulo FC win
6.20
7.00
+12.9%
Draw
4.10
4.25
+3.7%
CR Flamengo win
1.51
1.48
-2.0%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.