The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Cruzeiro EC win
53%
1.91
Draw
26%
3.90
Botafogo FR win
21%
5.00
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under
50%
1.97
Over
50%
2.00
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
52%
1.91
No
48%
2.00
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 9.5
53%
1.84
Under 9.5
47%
2.05
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 5.5
51%
1.98
Under 5.5
49%
2.10
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Botafogo FR win
4.18
4.53
+8.4%
Draw
3.50
3.72
+6.3%
Cruzeiro EC win
1.85
1.75
-5.4%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.