The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
RB Bragantino win
58%
1.71
Draw
25%
4.10
Coritiba FBC win
17%
5.90
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under
51%
1.93
Over
49%
2.01
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
No
51%
1.91
Yes
49%
1.95
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 10.5
53%
1.82
Over 10.5
47%
2.05
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 5.5
50%
2.10
Over 5.5
50%
2.04
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Coritiba FBC win
5.00
5.60
+12.0%
Draw
3.78
3.88
+2.6%
RB Bragantino win
1.67
1.60
-4.2%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.