The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
EC Bahia win
44%
2.23
Draw
28%
3.44
SC Corinthians Paulista win
28%
3.58
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under
52%
1.87
Over
48%
2.03
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
53%
1.80
No
47%
2.10
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 9.5
51%
1.87
Under 9.5
49%
2.04
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 5.5
50%
1.94
Under 5.5
50%
2.00
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
SC Corinthians Paulista win
3.40
3.30
-2.9%
Draw
3.35
3.35
0.0%
EC Bahia win
2.11
2.16
+2.4%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.