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CA Paranaense 2–0 SC Internacional

← Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026 · regular season · Sat, Jul 25, 09:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Pereira

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CA Paranaense win47%2.07
Draw29%3.36
SC Internacional win24%4.20

across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.67
Over42%2.43

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
No53%1.87
Yes47%2.06

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 10.553%1.82
Over 10.547%2.05

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 5.551%1.87
Over 5.549%2.12

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
SC Internacional win3.954.00+1.3%
Draw3.253.30+1.5%
CA Paranaense win1.962.00+2.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Timeline

45'⚽Leozinho · CA Paranaense
60'⚽Kevin Viveros · CA Paranaense

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCA ParanaenseSC Internacional
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.16
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.25
box share (last 5)0.670.62
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days115.00205.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueArena da Baixada
5.00
4.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.622.95
elo1542.841477.73
elo momentum (last 5)20.22-19.07
eye test v10.210.18
eye trend v1-0.12-0.57
first sub minute (last 10)42.0058.20
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.10
keeper form v10.660.66
league points33.0021.00
league rank3.0015.00
matches since blank4.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.0079.00
possession avg (last 5)43.8051.20
rest days2.882.88
scorer concentration0.390.25
season ppg1.741.11
skill v1-0.020.43
solidity v10.760.06
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.004.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.60
squad age30.0827.81
state index0.50-0.45
sterile dominance v1-0.71-0.44
threat rate (last 10)0.290.31
threat rate (last 3)0.300.32
threat rate (last 5)0.320.32
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.091.02
xg for avg (last 5)1.331.79