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EC Vitória v CR Vasco da Gama

← Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026 · regular season · Thu, Jul 16, 10:30 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
EC Vitória win40%2.48
CR Vasco da Gama win31%3.25
Draw29%3.36

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.81
Over46%2.15

across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes52%1.87
No48%1.98

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 9.551%1.92
Under 9.549%2.04

across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 5.555%1.68
Over 5.545%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
CR Vasco da Gama win2.923.04+3.9%
Draw3.203.30+3.1%
EC Vitória win2.412.31-3.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueBarradao