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EC Vitória 1–0 CR Vasco da Gama

← Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026 · regular season · Thu, Jul 16, 10:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Delgado

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
EC Vitória win40%2.48
CR Vasco da Gama win31%3.25
Draw29%3.36

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.82
Over46%2.15

across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes52%1.87
No48%2.00

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 9.551%1.92
Under 9.549%2.04

across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 4.554%1.83
Under 4.546%2.10

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
CR Vasco da Gama win2.923.02+3.6%
Draw3.203.27+2.3%
EC Vitória win2.412.34-2.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Timeline

69'⚽Renato Kayzer · EC Vitória

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricEC VitóriaCR Vasco da Gama
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.33
box share (last 5)0.620.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days196.00196.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.800.40
corners against avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueBarradao
4.80
4.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.841.45
elo1487.381460.59
elo momentum (last 5)5.03-32.37
eye test v10.190.75
eye trend v10.100.02
first sub minute (last 10)45.4059.50
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
keeper form v10.550.70
league points22.0020.00
league rank13.0017.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.0087.00
possession avg (last 5)50.4056.60
rest days30.0030.00
scorer concentration0.280.19
season ppg1.291.11
skill v10.160.87
solidity v10.11-0.83
sot against avg (last 5)3.405.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.405.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.005.80
squad age28.1426.42
state index0.28-0.76
sterile dominance v10.370.18
threat rate (last 10)0.240.32
threat rate (last 3)0.240.30
threat rate (last 5)0.230.32
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.411.54
xg for avg (last 5)1.161.35