The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
São Paulo FC win
47%
2.07
Draw
29%
3.43
CA Paranaense win
24%
4.57
across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under
57%
1.71
Over
43%
2.31
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
No
52%
1.87
Yes
48%
1.95
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 10.5
53%
1.82
Over 10.5
47%
2.00
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 5.5
53%
2.00
Over 5.5
47%
2.05
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
CA Paranaense win
4.45
3.95
-11.2%
Draw
3.34
3.25
-2.7%
São Paulo FC win
1.85
1.98
+6.8%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.