⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Mirassol FC 2–1 Grêmio FBPA

← Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026 · regular season · Fri, Jul 17, 11:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Arleu de Araujo, Brazil

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mirassol FC win47%2.34
Draw28%3.45
Grêmio FBPA win25%4.10

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.75
Over44%2.23

across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
No51%1.90
Yes49%1.95

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 9.551%1.87
Under 9.549%1.95

across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 5.551%1.91
Over 5.549%2.00

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Grêmio FBPA win3.103.89+25.5%
Draw3.243.38+4.2%
Mirassol FC win2.271.96-13.7%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Timeline

16'⚽Bruno Santos · Mirassol FC
38'🟨Denilson · Mirassol FC
40'⚽Edson Carioca · Mirassol FC
41'🟨Walter Kannemann · Grêmio FBPA
65'🟨Gustavo Martins · Grêmio FBPA
77'⚽Carlos Vinícius · Grêmio FBPA
79'🟨Leonel Pérez · Grêmio FBPA

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMirassol FCGrêmio FBPA
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10—
box share (last 5)0.480.65
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days503.00197.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio José Maria de Campos Maia
0.00
0.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.462.72
elo1480.031479.45
elo momentum (last 5)-7.04-13.13
eye test v1-0.51-0.95
eye trend v1-0.100.28
form points (last 5)6.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.35—
keeper form v10.74—
league points16.0021.00
league rank19.0015.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.004.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2082.80
possession avg (last 5)46.8043.60
rest days30.0030.00
scorer concentration0.200.44
season ppg0.941.17
skill v10.030.06
solidity v10.51-0.84
sot against avg (last 5)3.205.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.002.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.602.40
squad age31.0626.35
state index0.01-0.33
sterile dominance v10.260.46
threat rate (last 10)0.240.21
threat rate (last 3)0.240.19
threat rate (last 5)0.210.17
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.211.74
xg for avg (last 5)0.800.94