The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
SC Internacional win
42%
2.34
Cruzeiro EC win
29%
3.40
Draw
29%
3.40
across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under
54%
1.80
Over
46%
2.11
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
52%
1.87
No
48%
2.00
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 9.5
53%
1.80
Under 9.5
47%
2.05
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 5.5
52%
1.93
Over 5.5
48%
2.00
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Cruzeiro EC win
3.10
3.27
+5.6%
Draw
3.25
3.30
+1.5%
SC Internacional win
2.27
2.20
-3.1%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.