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Fluminense FC 1–1 RB Bragantino

← Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026 · regular season · Fri, Jul 17, 11:00 PM UTC · ref: Davi de Oliveira Lacerda, Brazil

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fluminense FC win49%1.98
Draw28%3.68
RB Bragantino win23%5.14

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.80
Over46%2.12

across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
No50%1.91
Yes50%1.95

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 9.550%1.95
Under 9.550%1.91

across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 5.554%1.73
Under 5.546%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
RB Bragantino win5.004.00-20.0%
Draw3.583.33-6.8%
Fluminense FC win1.731.92+10.7%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Timeline

27'⚽Eduardo Sasha · RB Bragantino
58'🟨Eduardo Sasha · RB Bragantino
64'🟥Agustin Sant'Anna · RB Bragantino
64'🟨Alix Vinicius · RB Bragantino
90'🟨Tiago Volpi · RB Bragantino
90'🟨Luciano Acosta · Fluminense FC
90'🟥John Kennedy · Fluminense FC
90'🟥Fabinho · RB Bragantino
90'🟨Henry Mosquera · RB Bragantino
90'🟨Juan Freytes · Fluminense FC
90'

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFluminense FCRB Bragantino
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.15—
box share (last 5)0.730.62
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days228.00197.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio do Maracanã
⚽
Ignácio · Fluminense FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

0.00
0.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.932.55
elo1528.201534.51
elo momentum (last 5)19.3440.75
eye test v1-0.050.57
eye trend v1-0.220.42
form points (last 5)10.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.37
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.45—
keeper form v10.730.72
league points31.0029.00
league rank3.005.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet13.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.8077.20
possession avg (last 5)57.4047.00
rest days30.0030.00
scorer concentration0.330.24
season ppg1.721.61
skill v11.30-0.23
solidity v10.690.80
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.605.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.007.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.20
squad age28.5828.37
state index0.560.76
sterile dominance v11.05-0.90
threat rate (last 10)0.210.33
threat rate (last 3)0.180.44
threat rate (last 5)0.210.34
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.80
xg against avg (last 5)0.731.06
xg for avg (last 5)1.251.72