The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
SE Palmeiras win
48%
2.16
Draw
29%
3.50
Coritiba FBC win
23%
5.14
across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under
56%
1.74
Over
44%
2.29
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
No
51%
1.87
Yes
49%
2.00
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 10.5
52%
1.90
Over 10.5
48%
2.00
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 4.5
54%
1.77
Under 4.5
46%
2.15
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
SE Palmeiras win
1.94
1.83
-5.9%
Draw
3.30
3.40
+3.0%
Coritiba FBC win
4.00
4.65
+16.3%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.