The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
CR Flamengo win
64%
1.52
Draw
22%
4.50
Chapecoense AF win
14%
7.50
across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over
51%
1.90
Under
49%
2.03
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
No
53%
1.91
Yes
47%
2.02
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 10.5
53%
1.82
Over 10.5
47%
2.05
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 4.5
51%
1.87
Over 4.5
49%
2.07
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
CR Flamengo win
1.50
1.46
-3.0%
Draw
4.20
4.33
+3.1%
Chapecoense AF win
6.50
7.00
+7.7%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.