The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Botafogo FR win
47%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.65
Santos FC win
26%
4.03
across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over
51%
1.90
Under
49%
2.00
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
55%
1.75
No
45%
2.20
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 9.5
52%
1.82
Under 9.5
48%
2.05
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 5.5
54%
1.82
Over 5.5
46%
2.20
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Santos FC win
4.00
3.50
-12.5%
Draw
3.32
3.52
+6.2%
Botafogo FR win
1.94
2.01
+3.9%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.