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Botafogo FR v Santos FC

← Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026 · regular season · Thu, Jul 16, 10:30 PM UTC · ref: Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima, Brazil · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Botafogo FR win47%2.12
Draw27%3.65
Santos FC win26%4.03

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.90
Under49%2.00

across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes55%1.75
No45%2.20

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 9.552%1.82
Under 9.548%2.05

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 5.554%1.82
Over 5.546%2.20

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Santos FC win4.003.50-12.5%
Draw3.323.52+6.2%
Botafogo FR win1.942.01+3.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio Nilton Santos