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EC Bahia 2–0 Chapecoense AF

← Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026 · regular season · Fri, Jul 17, 10:30 PM UTC · ref: Paulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva, Brazil

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
EC Bahia win66%1.47
Draw20%5.00
Chapecoense AF win14%7.80

across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.65
Under40%2.40

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes53%1.91
No47%2.05

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 10.554%1.76
Over 10.546%2.05

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 4.557%1.65
Under 4.543%2.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Chapecoense AF win7.706.48-15.8%
Draw4.784.75-0.5%
EC Bahia win1.401.44+3.2%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Timeline

-5'🟨Luciano Juba · EC Bahia
12'⚽ (pen)Rodrigo Nestor · EC Bahia
34'⚽Román Gómez · EC Bahia
64'🟨José Guilherme · EC Bahia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricEC BahiaChapecoense AF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.33
box share (last 5)0.640.48
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days197.00715.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.852.95
elo1508.05
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueArena Fonte Nova
1398.81
elo momentum (last 5)-12.76-25.92
eye test v10.620.10
eye trend v1-0.230.27
form points (last 5)5.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.63
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.50
keeper form v10.810.72
league points26.009.00
league rank7.0020.00
matches since blank6.000.00
matches since clean sheet9.0011.00
matches since win0.0016.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.4083.40
possession avg (last 5)58.6047.00
rest days30.0030.00
scorer concentration0.250.14
season ppg1.530.53
skill v11.250.33
solidity v1-0.350.02
sot against avg (last 5)5.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.503.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.40
squad age29.4929.68
state index-0.11-1.45
sterile dominance v10.55-0.29
threat rate (last 10)0.260.30
threat rate (last 3)0.290.29
threat rate (last 5)0.280.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.151.23
xg for avg (last 5)1.791.12