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Sporting Clube de Braga 2–2 FC Famalicão

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Apr 19, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Silva

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sporting Clube de Braga win50%1.86
Draw27%3.50
FC Famalicão win23%4.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Famalicão −0.550%1.93
Sporting Clube de Braga −0.550%1.93

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.85
Under48%2.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Fran Navarro · Sporting Clube de Braga
40'⚽Gil Dias · FC Famalicão
50'🟨João Moutinho · Sporting Clube de Braga
65'⚽Rafa Soares · FC Famalicão
68'🟨Gil Dias · FC Famalicão
77'🟨Ibrahima Ba · FC Famalicão
88'🟨Gustaf Lagerbielke · Sporting Clube de Braga
88'🟨Simon Elisor · FC Famalicão
90'🟨Justin De Haas · FC Famalicão
90'🟨Rodrigo Pinheiro · FC Famalicão
90'⚽ (pen)

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
10Shots6
4On target3
5Corners2
10Fouls11
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSporting Clube de BragaFC Famalicão
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.470.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.530.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.490.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.710.71
cards avg (last 5)2.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio Municipal de Braga
Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga
2.80
coach days292.00504.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.11
corner diff avg (last 5)0.605.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.002.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.607.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.373.92
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.17
dominance (last 5)0.440.63
elo1801.801637.56
elo momentum (last 5)15.9624.03
eye test v1-0.160.49
eye trend v1-0.210.28
first sub minute (last 10)61.2059.60
form points (last 5)10.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.371.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.600.25
keeper form v10.710.72
league points52.0047.00
league rank4.005.00
matches since blank6.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)87.0082.60
possession avg (last 5)58.8055.00
rest days3.028.99
scorer concentration0.260.13
season ppg1.861.62
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.805.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.4013.80
skill v10.860.60
solidity v10.631.11
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.504.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.605.40
squad age26.1025.34
state index0.760.51
sterile dominance v11.840.58
threat rate (last 10)0.170.22
threat rate (last 3)0.110.26
threat rate (last 5)0.120.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.100.65
xg for avg (last 5)1.191.45