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FC Arouca 1–2 Sport Lisboa e Benfica

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Mar 14, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Bessa

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sport Lisboa e Benfica win73%1.27
Draw17%5.50
FC Arouca win10%9.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sport Lisboa e Benfica +1.552%1.85
FC Arouca +1.548%2.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.53
Under39%2.40

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽ (pen)Ivan Barbero · FC Arouca
22'🟨Javi Sánchez · FC Arouca
45'🟨Ivan Barbero · FC Arouca
48'🟨Hyun-ju Lee · FC Arouca
50'⚽Richard Ríos · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
59'🟨Richard Ríos · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
59'🟨António Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
77'🟨Pablo Gozálbez · FC Arouca
80'🟨Ignacio de Arruabarrena · FC Arouca
90'🟥Alfonso Trezza · FC Arouca
90'🟨Gianluca Prestianni · Sport Lisboa e Benfica

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots22
6On target5
2Corners15
17Fouls11
5Yellow cards5
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC AroucaSport Lisboa e Benfica
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.620.59
cards avg (last 5)2.401.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio Municipal de Arouca
90'🟨Anatoliy Trubin · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
90'🟨Vangelis Pavlidis · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
90'🟨Tomás Araújo · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
90'🟥Amar Dedic · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
90'⚽Franjo Ivanović · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
coach days
529.00
256.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.802.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.803.60
corners for avg (last 5)2.006.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.423.05
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.10
dominance (last 5)0.390.66
elo1513.201864.12
elo momentum (last 5)5.98-11.51
eye test v10.110.41
eye trend v10.03-0.75
first sub minute (last 10)55.7065.30
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.41
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.55
keeper form v10.580.69
league points26.0059.00
league rank11.003.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.4082.40
possession avg (last 5)53.4052.20
rest days8.016.10
scorer concentration0.270.30
season ppg1.042.36
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.609.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.0018.60
skill v10.490.55
solidity v1-0.380.42
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.106.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.605.00
squad age25.4225.75
state index-0.070.96
sterile dominance v10.820.06
threat rate (last 10)0.210.33
threat rate (last 3)0.180.28
threat rate (last 5)0.210.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.580.98
xg for avg (last 5)1.151.61