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CD Santa Clara 1–2 Sport Lisboa e Benfica

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Fri, Feb 13, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Nobre

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sport Lisboa e Benfica win59%1.57
Draw26%3.60
CD Santa Clara win15%6.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CD Santa Clara +154%1.75
Sport Lisboa e Benfica +146%2.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.67
Over44%2.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Vangelis Pavlidis · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
38'⚽ (og)Paulo Victor · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
45'🟨Vinícius Lopes · CD Santa Clara
47'⚽Gonçalo Paciência · CD Santa Clara
59'🟨Gonçalo Paciência · CD Santa Clara
66'🟨Lucas Soares · CD Santa Clara
78'🟨Frederico Venâncio · CD Santa Clara
84'🟨José Tavares · CD Santa Clara
90'🟨Lucas Soares · CD Santa Clara
90'🟥Lucas Soares · CD Santa Clara
90'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
9Shots11
2On target3
1Corners7
23Fouls5
6Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCD Santa ClaraSport Lisboa e Benfica
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.250.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.190.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.180.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.550.68
cards avg (last 5)3.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio de São Miguel
🟨
Tomás Araújo · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
90'🟨Gianluca Prestianni · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
1.20
coach days958.00227.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.11
corner diff avg (last 5)3.405.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.402.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.808.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.692.87
defensive leak (last 5)0.230.06
dominance (last 5)0.640.77
elo1490.751872.92
elo momentum (last 5)-40.88-2.03
eye test v1-0.272.00
eye trend v10.070.48
first sub minute (last 10)65.9065.50
form points (last 5)1.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.001.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.55
h2 goals (last 10)0.301.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.50
keeper form v10.650.71
league points17.0049.00
league rank16.003.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet6.001.00
matches since win8.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0084.20
possession avg (last 5)53.0058.80
rest days6.134.92
scorer concentration0.380.34
season ppg0.812.33
shot diff avg (last 5)6.2015.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.4022.20
skill v10.401.31
solidity v1-0.030.98
sot against avg (last 5)3.802.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.907.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.0010.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.208.40
squad age29.8226.46
state index-0.831.32
sterile dominance v10.01-0.37
threat rate (last 10)0.250.34
threat rate (last 3)0.240.47
threat rate (last 5)0.290.39
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.350.94
xg for avg (last 5)1.462.14