← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Feb 8, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Nogueira
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 84% | 1.11 |
| Draw | 10% | 9.00 |
| Rio Ave FC win | 6% | 15.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga −2 | 56% | 1.68 |
| Rio Ave FC −2 | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under | 33% | 2.88 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |