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Sporting Clube de Braga 2–2 Sport Lisboa e Benfica

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Dec 28, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sport Lisboa e Benfica win46%2.16
Draw30%3.34
Sporting Clube de Braga win25%4.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sport Lisboa e Benfica +0.2554%1.85
Sporting Clube de Braga +0.2546%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.72
Over43%2.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Tomás Araújo · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
29'⚽Nicolás Otamendi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
30'🟨João Moutinho · Sporting Clube de Braga
38'⚽ (pen)Rodrigo Zalazar · Sporting Clube de Braga
45'⚽Pau Víctor · Sporting Clube de Braga
53'⚽Fredrik Aursnes · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
65'🟨Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga
74'🟨Richard Ríos · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
88'🟨Gabriel Moscardo · Sporting Clube de Braga
90'🟨Ricardo Horta ·

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
11Shots14
3On target6
1Corners5
14Fouls9
4Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSporting Clube de BragaSport Lisboa e Benfica
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.52
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.740.72
cards avg (last 5)1.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio Municipal de Braga
Sporting Clube de Braga
90'🟥Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

1.00
coach days180.00180.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.16
corner diff avg (last 5)1.601.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.003.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.605.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.252.72
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.13
dominance (last 5)0.620.69
elo1778.861892.11
elo momentum (last 5)14.1528.71
eye test v10.660.76
eye trend v1-0.220.09
first sub minute (last 10)53.6063.80
form points (last 5)12.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.371.48
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.55
keeper form v10.770.78
league points25.0035.00
league rank5.003.00
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)88.4082.80
possession avg (last 5)68.0050.00
rest days8.915.89
scorer concentration0.310.37
season ppg1.672.33
shot diff avg (last 5)5.609.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.6015.80
skill v11.840.50
solidity v10.791.74
sot against avg (last 5)3.402.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.905.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.60
squad age25.9525.57
state index1.141.59
sterile dominance v11.76-0.08
threat rate (last 10)0.210.27
threat rate (last 3)0.140.23
threat rate (last 5)0.200.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.402.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.120.54
xg for avg (last 5)1.911.61