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Sporting Clube de Braga 1–0 CD Santa Clara

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Mon, Dec 15, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa, Portugal

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sporting Clube de Braga win66%1.47
Draw23%4.18
CD Santa Clara win11%8.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sporting Clube de Braga −153%1.85
CD Santa Clara −147%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.67
Over43%2.29

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

36'🟨Wendel Silva · CD Santa Clara
42'⚽Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga
48'🟨Luís Rocha · CD Santa Clara
74'🟨Pedro Ferreira · CD Santa Clara
88'🟨Pau Víctor · Sporting Clube de Braga

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots5
3On target2
5Corners1
10Fouls15
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSporting Clube de BragaCD Santa Clara
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.780.57
cards avg (last 5)1.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio Municipal de Braga
4.20
coach days167.00898.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.10
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.472.63
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.06
dominance (last 5)0.690.55
elo1783.281541.21
elo momentum (last 5)27.695.46
eye test v10.63-0.03
eye trend v1-0.06-0.26
first sub minute (last 10)52.8062.60
form points (last 5)13.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.200.57
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v10.760.76
league points22.0015.00
league rank6.0012.00
matches since blank11.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.6080.20
possession avg (last 5)61.8052.00
rest days4.049.14
scorer concentration0.27—
season ppg1.691.15
shot diff avg (last 5)8.201.80
shots for avg (last 5)15.0012.00
skill v11.460.30
solidity v10.881.22
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.00
squad age26.0929.75
state index1.260.19
sterile dominance v11.150.20
threat rate (last 10)0.230.28
threat rate (last 3)0.240.24
threat rate (last 5)0.220.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.090.71
xg for avg (last 5)2.031.44