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FC Arouca 0–4 Sporting Clube de Braga

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Mon, Dec 1, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Nogueira, Portugal

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sporting Clube de Braga win64%1.49
Draw22%4.50
FC Arouca win14%7.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sporting Clube de Braga +153%1.83
FC Arouca +147%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.85
Under47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Jose Fontán · FC Arouca
15'🟨Jose Fontán · FC Arouca
15'🟥Jose Fontán · FC Arouca
25'🟨Alex Pinto · FC Arouca
26'⚽ (og)Nico Mantl · Sporting Clube de Braga
31'⚽Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga
45'⚽ (og)Alex Pinto · Sporting Clube de Braga
71'⚽Gustaf Lagerbielke · Sporting Clube de Braga
84'🟨Tiago Esgaio · FC Arouca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
3Shots18
1On target6
0Corners6
11Fouls9
4Yellow cards0
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC AroucaSporting Clube de Braga
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.190.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.560.68
cards avg (last 5)3.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio Municipal de Arouca
1.40
coach days426.00153.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.601.40
corners against avg (last 5)8.003.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.012.08
defensive leak (last 5)0.230.09
dominance (last 5)0.400.55
elo1507.571758.57
elo momentum (last 5)-36.06-12.68
eye test v1-1.120.63
eye trend v1-0.360.08
first sub minute (last 10)56.0050.80
form points (last 5)1.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)3.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.251.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
keeper form v10.640.72
league points9.0016.00
league rank16.008.00
matches since blank1.008.00
matches since clean sheet13.004.00
matches since win5.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0085.80
possession avg (last 5)50.4059.40
rest days24.004.01
scorer concentration0.330.25
season ppg0.821.45
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.201.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.2011.20
skill v1-0.271.34
solidity v1-1.940.43
sot against avg (last 5)6.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.405.00
squad age25.7826.48
state index-1.050.66
sterile dominance v10.691.05
threat rate (last 10)0.190.21
threat rate (last 3)0.160.23
threat rate (last 5)0.180.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.20
xg against avg (last 5)2.230.96
xg for avg (last 5)0.591.98