← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Nov 9, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Gustavo Correia, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 81% | 1.18 |
| Draw | 12% | 8.49 |
| Casa Pia AC win | 7% | 15.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC −2 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica −2 | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.65 |
| Under | 42% | 2.28 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | David Sousa · Casa Pia AC |
| 17' | ⚽ | Georgiy Sudakov · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 53' | 🟨 | Georgiy Sudakov · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Vangelis Pavlidis · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 63' | 🟨 | António Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 65' | ⚽ (og) | Tomás Araújo · Casa Pia AC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Richard Ríos · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Patrick Sequeira · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Renato Nhaga · Casa Pia AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Casa Pia AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 131.00 | 100.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1836.53 | 1502.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.91 | -35.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.80 | 51.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| league points | 24.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 4.02 | 8.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | -0.13 |
| solidity v1 | 0.66 | -1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.39 | 28.34 |
| state index | 0.86 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.03 |