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Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2–1 Gil Vicente FC

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Fri, Sep 26, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sport Lisboa e Benfica win73%1.30
Draw18%5.58
Gil Vicente FC win9%11.64

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gil Vicente FC −1.551%1.95
Sport Lisboa e Benfica −1.549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.73
Under44%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Luís Esteves · Gil Vicente FC
18'⚽Vangelis Pavlidis · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
26'⚽ (pen)Vangelis Pavlidis · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
51'🟨Luís Esteves · Gil Vicente FC
56'🟨Marvin Elimbi · Gil Vicente FC
65'🟨Amar Dedic · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
75'🟨Nicolás Otamendi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
90'🟨Richard Ríos · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
90'🟨Hevertton Santos · Gil Vicente FC
90'🟨Hevertton Santos · Gil Vicente FC

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
10Shots16
4On target8
0Corners7
14Fouls20
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSport Lisboa e BenficaGil Vicente FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.610.62
cards avg (last 5)2.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio da Luz
90'🟥Hevertton Santos · Gil Vicente FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

1.80
coach days87.00209.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.07
corner diff avg (last 5)1.802.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.403.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.812.44
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.03
dominance (last 5)0.650.58
elo1860.621559.49
elo momentum (last 5)-29.1241.17
eye test v10.580.18
eye trend v1-0.070.10
first sub minute (last 10)63.7052.70
form points (last 5)8.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
h2h win rate (last 5)1.000.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.650.25
keeper form v10.720.86
league points14.0013.00
league rank3.004.00
matches since blank20.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)88.2078.20
possession avg (last 5)63.4046.00
rest days3.005.09
scorer concentration0.220.50
season ppg2.332.17
shot diff avg (last 5)8.604.00
shots for avg (last 5)16.8014.80
skill v11.54-0.08
solidity v10.640.99
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.603.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.40
squad age25.6226.05
state index0.810.68
sterile dominance v11.20-0.75
threat rate (last 10)0.260.29
threat rate (last 3)0.280.30
threat rate (last 5)0.240.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.60
xg against avg (last 5)0.880.93
xg for avg (last 5)1.781.47