← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Sep 20, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 80% | 1.19 |
| Draw | 13% | 8.02 |
| AVS win | 7% | 13.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AVS +2 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica +2 | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.62 |
| Under | 39% | 2.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | António Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 40' | 🟨 | Simão · AVS |
| 45' | ⚽ | Georgiy Sudakov · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Vangelis Pavlidis · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 64' | ⚽ | Franjo Ivanović · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 19 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AVS | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves |
| coach days | 50.00 | 81.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1401.57 | 1865.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.33 | -20.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 63.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| league points | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 3.92 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.20 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | 1.40 |
| solidity v1 | -0.43 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.51 | 25.21 |
| state index | -1.14 | 1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | 1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.89 |