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Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1–1 CD Santa Clara

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Fri, Sep 12, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: J. Pinheiro

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sport Lisboa e Benfica win74%1.29
Draw17%5.50
CD Santa Clara win9%12.42

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CD Santa Clara −1.552%1.88
Sport Lisboa e Benfica −1.548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.83
Over46%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Gabriel Silva · CD Santa Clara
38'🟥Paulo Victor · CD Santa Clara
58'🟨Enzo Barrenechea · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
59'⚽Vangelis Pavlidis · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
90'⚽Vinícius Lopes · CD Santa Clara

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
19Shots9
7On target5
4Corners5
8Fouls11
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSport Lisboa e BenficaCD Santa Clara
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.680.63
cards avg (last 5)3.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio da Luz
1.40
coach days73.00804.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.04
corner diff avg (last 5)2.204.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.002.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.206.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.663.19
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.15
dominance (last 5)0.530.63
elo1892.161542.29
elo momentum (last 5)2.98-15.22
eye test v10.24-0.34
eye trend v1-0.31-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)62.7056.60
form points (last 5)11.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.581.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.40
h2h win rate (last 5)1.000.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.700.30
keeper form v10.860.81
league points9.004.00
league rank5.0010.00
matches since blank20.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.4079.60
possession avg (last 5)57.6051.40
rest days12.095.99
scorer concentration0.20—
season ppg3.001.00
shot diff avg (last 5)1.804.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.6013.00
skill v11.03-0.07
solidity v10.471.17
sot against avg (last 5)4.402.40
sot for avg (last 10)6.004.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.60
squad age25.3528.63
state index1.300.03
sterile dominance v10.88-0.01
threat rate (last 10)0.280.28
threat rate (last 3)0.220.28
threat rate (last 5)0.220.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.100.98
xg for avg (last 5)1.860.97