⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Rio Ave FC 2–2 Sporting Clube de Braga

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Aug 31, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Verissimo

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sporting Clube de Braga win57%1.74
Draw25%3.84
Rio Ave FC win18%5.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sporting Clube de Braga +0.7551%1.96
Rio Ave FC +0.7549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under50%1.93
Over50%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Jean-Baptiste Gorby · Sporting Clube de Braga
14'⚽ (pen)Clayton · Rio Ave FC
22'⚽Roger Fernandes · Sporting Clube de Braga
24'⚽Clayton · Rio Ave FC
42'🟨Dario Špikić · Rio Ave FC
45'🟨Victor Gómez · Sporting Clube de Braga
60'🟨Brandon Aguilera · Rio Ave FC
81'🟨Cezary Miszta · Rio Ave FC
88'⚽Amine El Ouazzani · Sporting Clube de Braga

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
5Shots20
3On target9
1Corners7
13Fouls12
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRio Ave FCSporting Clube de Braga
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.48
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.690.58
cards avg (last 5)2.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube
0.60
coach days30.0061.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.006.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.17
corner diff avg (last 5)0.003.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.802.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.412.69
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.20
dominance (last 5)0.540.65
elo1526.971766.92
elo momentum (last 5)4.4714.50
eye test v10.871.22
eye trend v10.280.02
first sub minute (last 10)60.6059.10
form points (last 5)7.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.402.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.003.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.49
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.50
keeper form v10.670.79
matches since blank5.008.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.4085.40
possession avg (last 5)50.8061.80
rest days8.003.02
scorer concentration—0.20
season ppg1.002.33
shot diff avg (last 5)3.007.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.6015.80
skill v10.331.31
solidity v10.401.10
sot against avg (last 5)4.402.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.805.40
sot for avg (last 3)6.336.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.406.40
squad age23.9726.19
state index-0.011.13
sterile dominance v1-0.130.78
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.250.27
threat rate (last 5)0.290.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.00
xg against avg (last 5)0.891.09
xg for avg (last 5)1.451.81