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Sporting Clube de Braga 3–0 CD Tondela

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Aug 10, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Pereira

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sporting Clube de Braga win65%1.50
Draw22%4.81
CD Tondela win13%8.24

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sporting Clube de Braga −154%1.90
CD Tondela −146%2.32

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.93
Under49%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'⚽Vítor Carvalho · Sporting Clube de Braga
37'⚽Pau Víctor · Sporting Clube de Braga
70'🟨Roger Fernandes · Sporting Clube de Braga
76'🟨João Afonso · CD Tondela
82'🟨Brayan Medina · CD Tondela
83'⚽ (pen)Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga
90'🟨Yefrei Rodriguez · CD Tondela

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
8Shots7
6On target3
5Corners3
10Fouls9
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSporting Clube de BragaCD Tondela
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.57
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.49
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.25
box share (last 5)0.520.63
cards avg (last 5)1.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio Municipal de Braga
3.60
coach days40.0040.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d3.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.08
corner diff avg (last 5)3.40-3.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.005.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.401.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.831.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.17
dominance (last 5)0.640.37
elo1748.961424.87
elo momentum (last 5)-4.11-11.17
eye test v10.18-0.00
eye trend v10.120.55
first sub minute (last 10)65.8055.90
form points (last 5)8.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.25
keeper form v10.760.55
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.0020.00
matches since win0.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.8078.80
possession avg (last 5)57.0042.60
rest days3.1330.00
shot diff avg (last 5)7.00-5.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.607.60
skill v10.56-0.35
solidity v10.89—
sot against avg (last 5)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.003.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.20
squad age26.43—
state index0.78-0.84
sterile dominance v10.460.00
threat rate (last 10)0.240.19
threat rate (last 3)0.340.22
threat rate (last 5)0.260.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.02—
xg for avg (last 5)1.23—