← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, May 16, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: D. Nicolson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 58% | 55% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.20 | fair |
| Falkirk win | 20% | 23% | 4.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rangers +0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Falkirk +0.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 60% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 40% | 2.63 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Youssef Chermiti · Rangers |
| 6' | ⚽ | Youssef Chermiti · Rangers |
| 7' | ⚽ (og) | Jack Butland · Falkirk |
| 20' | 🟨 | Henry Cartwright · Falkirk |
| 26' | 🟨 | Brad Spencer · Falkirk |
| 27' | ⚽ | Djeidi Gassama · Rangers |
| 32' | 🟨 | Calvin Miller · Falkirk |
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Calvin Miller · Falkirk |
| 47' | ⚽ | Youssef Chermiti · Rangers |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | Thelo Aasgaard · Rangers |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 8 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Falkirk | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Falkirk Stadium |
| coach days | 166.00 | 319.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1478.12 | 1687.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.11 | -41.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.81 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.54 |
| league points | 49.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 2.69 | 2.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | 0.75 |
| solidity v1 | -1.02 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.81 | 24.42 |
| state index | -0.89 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.82 |