← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 12, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: D. Robertson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 50% | 53% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +3% |
| Falkirk win | 23% | 17% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Falkirk +0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Rangers +0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 58% | 1.80 | value: +5% |
| Under | 47% | 42% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Ben Broggio · Falkirk |
| 26' | ⚽ | Finn Yeats · Falkirk |
| 32' | 🟨 | Jayden Meghoma · Rangers |
| 41' | 🟨 | Liam Henderson · Falkirk |
| 42' | ⚽ | Tochi Chukwuani · Rangers |
| 47' | ⚽ | Youssef Chermiti · Rangers |
| 52' | ⚽ | Nicolas Raskin · Rangers |
| 58' | ⚽ | Bojan Miovski · Rangers |
| 68' | 🟨 | James Tavernier · Rangers |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Calvin Miller · Falkirk |
| 72' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Falkirk | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Falkirk Stadium |
| Max Aarons · Rangers |
| 75' | ⚽ | Youssef Chermiti · Rangers |
| 80' | 🟨 | Coll Donaldson · Falkirk |
| 80' | 🟨 | Dylan Tait · Falkirk |
| 80' | 🟨 | Nicolas Raskin · Rangers |
| 88' | ⚽ | Bojan Miovski · Rangers |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 132.00 | 285.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 4.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1502.23 | 1728.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.28 | 3.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | 1.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | — |
| league points | 46.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 7.88 | 7.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 2.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 19.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | 1.46 |
| solidity v1 | 0.37 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.20 |
| squad age | 26.17 | 24.63 |
| state index | 0.21 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 2.60 |