← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Nicolson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell win | 48% | 54% | 1.96 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
| Falkirk win | 26% | 21% | 3.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Falkirk −0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Motherwell −0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 48% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 52% | 1.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Barney Stewart · Falkirk |
| 25' | 🟨 | Tom Sparrow · Motherwell |
| 34' | ⚽ | Elliot Watt · Motherwell |
| 42' | 🟨 | Liam Henderson · Falkirk |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ben Broggio · Falkirk |
| 56' | 🟨 | Keelan Adams · Falkirk |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Said · Motherwell |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Calvin Miller · Falkirk |
| 85' | 🟨 | Brad Spencer · Falkirk |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tawanda Maswanhise · Motherwell |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Motherwell | Falkirk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Fir Park |
| coach days | 124.00 | 124.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1590.35 | 1487.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.39 | -20.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.64 |
| league points | 54.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.11 | 0.14 |
| solidity v1 | 0.77 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.44 | 26.14 |
| state index | 0.45 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.21 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.25 |