← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Steven
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falkirk win | 59% | 59% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.20 | fair |
| Kilmarnock win | 19% | 17% | 4.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Falkirk −0.75 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Kilmarnock −0.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 61% | 1.80 | value: +11% |
| Under | 47% | 39% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ (og) | Ethan Brown · Falkirk |
| 28' | ⚽ | Dylan Tait · Falkirk |
| 31' | 🟨 | Brad Spencer · Falkirk |
| 36' | ⚽ | Barney Stewart · Falkirk |
| 40' | ⚽ | Greg Kiltie · Kilmarnock |
| 43' | 🟨 | Greg Kiltie · Kilmarnock |
| 44' | 🟨 | Coll Donaldson · Falkirk |
| 50' | ⚽ | Barney Stewart · Falkirk |
| 53' | 🟨 | Robbie Deas · Kilmarnock |
| 56' | ⚽ | Dylan Tait · Falkirk |
| 60' | 🟨 |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Falkirk | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Falkirk Stadium |
| Leon McCann · Falkirk |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 89.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1490.68 | 1418.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.29 | 22.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| league points | 39.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | 0.15 |
| solidity v1 | 0.23 | -2.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.57 | 26.04 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 2.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.85 |