← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Wilson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 36% | 41% | 2.57 | value: +6% |
| Falkirk win | 34% | 29% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hibernian +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Falkirk +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 42% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 58% | 2.10 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Barney Stewart · Falkirk |
| 37' | 🟨 | Kanayochukwu Megwa · Hibernian |
| 43' | ⚽ | Barney Stewart · Falkirk |
| 47' | 🟨 | Rocky Bushiri Kiranga · Hibernian |
| 59' | ⚽ | Rocky Bushiri Kiranga · Hibernian |
| 72' | 🟨 | Brad Spencer · Falkirk |
| 83' | ⚽ | Barney Stewart · Falkirk |
| 89' | ⚽ (og) | Grant Hanley · Falkirk |
| 90' | 🟨 | Louie Marsh · Falkirk |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Falkirk | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Falkirk Stadium |
| coach days | 54.00 | 54.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1478.61 | 1616.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.96 | 22.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.54 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.81 |
| league points | 30.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 9.80 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| solidity v1 | 1.19 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.51 | 28.22 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.32 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.38 |