← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Nick Walsh, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee United win | 49% | 43% | 1.91 | fair |
| Falkirk win | 25% | 28% | 3.70 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.70 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Falkirk −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Dundee United −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 52% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 48% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Calvin Miller · Falkirk |
| 19' | 🟨 | Bert Esselink · Dundee United |
| 22' | ⚽ (og) | Yevhenii Kucherenko · Falkirk |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kyrell Wilson · Falkirk |
| 48' | 🟨 | Dylan Tait · Falkirk |
| 58' | 🟨 | Brian Graham · Falkirk |
| 63' | ⚽ | Brian Graham · Falkirk |
| 77' | 🟨 | Luca Stephenson · Dundee United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Strain · Dundee United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 23 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dundee United | Falkirk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Tannadice Park |
| coach days | 997.00 | 1301.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1488.92 | 1432.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.43 | 28.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.72 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| league points | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.50 | -0.45 |
| solidity v1 | 0.04 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.33 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.35 |