β Scottish Premiership 2025-26 Β· Sun, Aug 3, 01:00 PM UTC Β· ref: John Beaton, Scotland
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Falkirk win | 53% | 52% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.70 | fair |
| Dundee United win | 21% | 24% | 4.52 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Falkirk β0.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Dundee United β0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 50% | 54% | 1.93 | value: +3% |
| Over | 50% | 46% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand