← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sun, Mar 5, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: David Dickinson, Scotland
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Celtic win | 76% | 74% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 20% | 6.53 | value: +30% |
| St Mirren win | 9% | 6% | 13.07 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| St Mirren +1.75 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Celtic +1.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 62% | 55% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 45% | 2.53 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 1 | Shots | 16 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 0 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand