← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Tue, Dec 20, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: William Collum, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 62% | 73% | 1.55 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.44 | fair |
| Aberdeen win | 16% | 9% | 6.23 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rangers +1 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Aberdeen +1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 66% | 1.71 | value: +13% |
| Under | 43% | 34% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Fashion Sakala · Rangers |
| 21' | 🟨 | Ylber Ramadani · Aberdeen |
| 21' | 🟨 | Ryan Jack · Rangers |
| 24' | 🟨 | Liam Scales · Aberdeen |
| 35' | 🟨 | Connor Barron · Aberdeen |
| 42' | 🟨 | James Sands · Rangers |
| 45' | ⚽ | Duk · Aberdeen |
| 53' | ⚽ | Leighton Clarkson · Aberdeen |
| 71' | 🟨 | Jayden Richardson · Aberdeen |
| 71' | 🟨 | John Lundstram · Rangers |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aberdeen | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Pittodrie Stadium |
| Marley Watkins · Aberdeen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alfredo Morelos · Rangers |
| 90' | 🟨 | Scott Arfield · Rangers |
| 90' | ⚽ | Scott Arfield · Rangers |
| 90' | ⚽ | Scott Arfield · Rangers |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 322.00 | 49.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 6.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 5.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1506.64 | 1812.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.75 | -16.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | 1.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| league points | 25.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 68.60 |
| rest days | 3.31 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 2.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.60 | 15.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 23.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.54 | 1.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.80 |
| squad age | — | 28.88 |
| state index | 0.04 | 1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |